This >>51682 ofc means little without knowing the strenght, the actual forces behind them.
I mean sure the Tsentr has a way narrower line than the rest, but how concentrated the forces are? They said they directed like 50K troops there, but how many units were then subordinated to Yug after the town fell?
I went through the deepstate and militaryland maps and made a list of Russian units they placed onto the map. The picture is not much clearer.
Wikipee has an order of battle, but it's quite dated and this division of forces is a new thing, it was shaped the past week basically.
Couple of fun finds:
>The 80th separate intelligence battalion "Sparta" named Fried Cock
The storm zed units are all named 'shoigists "storm-z"', and then one of them is "strom-v". Whoa.
And ofc it's quite chaotic, because in case of regiment and battalion level units can't know where they belong to, perhaps the map shows a brigade, and then some battalions belong to that, but they didn't bothered (or they don't know) to mention it's part of that brigade.
There are cases when it can be guessed that some units belong together. For example on the militaryland map (picrel) around that HQ at Rostov (8th Combined Arms Army HQ):
- 163th Armored Regiment
- 102nd Motorized Regiment
- 103rd Motorized Regiment
- 381st Artillery Regiment
These are typical components of an old school Soviet armored division - at least they organized the same based on Soviet model on the Hungary in the 50's. Later ofc there were other variations, like with 3 infantry, 2 armored, and 2 artillery regiments.
Btw average German WWII armored division looks very much the same too.
So I assume there is a division HQ somewhere that hold together these.

I really enjoyed this "Super Panel":
https://invidious.protokolla.fi/watch?v=8nhaYF3a86E
https://youtube.com/watch?v=8nhaYF3a86E [Embed]

Was given some food for thought, while was fun and entertaining. Almost make me wanna register and comment on youtube. Well, almost, not by a mile, but as close as I can get to that point.
Here I would just mention one thing, at about 1:19:20 they start to talk about an offensive against Belgorod, and then it gets rightly mentioned that the weapons come with a leash, that they can't use them in Russia, can't fire into Russia what the West considers Russia anyway, Russia considers all that they hold in Ukraine as Russia, especially Crimea, and Ukraine shoots into Crimea all the time....
It's like Vietnam. US army wasn't allowed to march into the North, and bring the war to them. One can't fight a war and win like this. It's a setup for failure.

>>51689
I don't think that's much of an issue. I think invading Belgorod would cause far more harm than good to Ukraine, it would give Russia the pretext to use Conscripts in the war and it would be the conscripts defending Belgorod so it might not actually effect Russian forces in the Donbass all that much.
I think what they are doing now with their small raids is the best course of action as it's enough that Russia has to place units there to stop it but not enough that Russia can justify an escalation.

>>51690
They cover this topic more than I wrote.
But if you think about it: AFU is destined to fail. If not the attrition grinding them down, time will, because US - even if Biden stays - will lose interest at one point. It will fail how South Vietnam failed. I could draw parallel with Korea, but Korea failed too, tho not as bad as Vietnam they had to retreat back, no unified Korea, and no peace ever since then, but the fat little rocketman.
With Belgorod they would gain would have gained - they have no strength for anything now, and won't be ever again, last summer was the peak a bargaining chip and a massive woodland to hold up Russians. The conscript part of the army reacts slow, and they are even less motivated than the current ones fighting in Ukraine.
Belgorod is would have been not a good move, but the rest is was, like their "counteroffensive" worse.

>>51691
If the Ukraine manages to prolong the war long enough there is a chance that Russia will agree to relatively favourable terms for Ukraine, Ukraine will lose Donbass but will keep the rest and may be able to join NATO and the EU. The counter offensive would have contributed towards that end and might have given even more favourable terms, it would not have ended the war, Russia would take everything back they lost even if that took years but it contributes to the effort that Russia has to expend.
I believe that if the effort needed becomes too great, Russia will eventually settle for peace once it deems it has achieved enough to sell as a victory and to achieve at least some of it's goals(such as taking the Donbass).

But taking Belgorod would never have given Ukraine a bargaining chip, Russia could never sell any peace brought from that as a victory no matter how hard it tried. Not only that but Ukraine taking Russia land(actual Russian land) would have a huge effect on the population of Russia, after all, as it is the war is still an external one.

It would have huge geopolitical ramifications for Russia as well as internal ones and Russia may feel that the only way to save face would be to take Kiev and achieve total vicotory.

>>51692
>prolong the war
I don't see how that is detrimental for Russia.
>But taking Belgorod would never have given Ukraine a bargaining chip...
I do agree taking Belgorod, or attacking that wouldn't have been a good move. I do think it would have been the least bad. But Belgorod is a sidetrack tho, and their (well, Wyatt's) idea in the first place.
My point is, can't beat an opponent if the war cannot be taken to him, and beat him on his land. With attrition the invasion can be stopped, but nothing will stop the opponent invading again at a later point. And attrition doesn't work if it attrites me more - and this is the case with Ukraine. They're losing material and personnel (especially experienced personnel) more quickly than they could replenish it. And now they lose land. And every loss they lose morale, they lose will to fight.

Also turns out we have a winner here: >>51559 HistoryLegends is indeed Canuck.
Turkbernd deserves an Krautchan Iron Account, and a medal.

First destroyed Abrams, at and by the Tsentr.
It seems they sent an Abrams in previously yesterday or the day before. It rolled in fired shots until depleted ammo, then rolled out. Perhaps they did the same today, but got caught.
Was surprising that no infantry, or visible air cover supported it.
It kinda reminds me of the situation of the Hungarian army at Iasi in WWII, when they got one (1) Tiger and with that they stopped a Soviet tank regiment allowing withdrawal of troops. In the end however they themselves had to abandon after blowing it up, for they run out of ammo and fuel.

>>51698
Hmmm. Fucked up wikipee link:
C3%81rp%C3%A1d_Line">https://en.wikipedia.org/wikiC3%81rp%C3%A1d_Line

>>51703
Yeah. Oh well. Just search Árpád Line / Árpád-vonal.

Topic related I guess, self-immolation airman guy. >>>/news/22165 has a thread about him.
In short a serviceman of the USAF decided to set himself on fire in front of the Israeli Embassy in Washington DC, as a protest against Israeli actions. I'm not sure if only in this ongoing conflict, or in general the treatment of Palestinians. He died in the hospital.
He seems to be a regular IT guy with family. I don't get why he would do such a thing. I'm also curious who gets moved and motivated by him - like in the sense who is the target audience.

I think the litmus test on how the Russian campaign is going and how the Ukrainians are actually holding up will be the battle at Krasnahorivka, SE from Avdiivka, west from the city of Donetsk.
The front here stands still for long, basically form 2014 it seems, and the place is fortified strong. It's larger than all these villages the fights are going over. The line is solid, the routing, withdrawing brigades are relatively far to the north, so no immediate danger for the flanks to be exposed.
Now the Russian army moved onto the town, brought the fights into the southernmost streets. There was at least in incursion, which the Ukrainians beaten back.
How long will it take for the Russians to take the place - if they will be able at all. If they roll through in 2 weeks... that would be impressive.

At the situation at Robotyne. It sounds like another "meatgrinder" where units can be thrown into by both sides, and probably both sides thinks that they trap the other there. Like at Bakhmut. I don't really expect much territorial gains for now there, but I think the situation favors Russia. Every unit stuffed into that cauldron by Ukraine, one less unit to worry about elsewhere.

So the brand new circus is going on for a few days now. Macron said:
>there is no consensus to officially back any ground troops. That said, nothing should be excluded. We will do everything that we can to make sure that Russia does not prevail.
Which reminds me of an idea not mine which I mention occasionally in these threads, that at one point NATO will move into Ukraine and create a security zone.
Now this statement of his, rather suggest to move in to fight Russians along Ukraine instead of creating a barrier, but occupying creating a security zone as much land would be denying Russia to:
1. annex whole Ukraine;
2. create a "neutral" Ukraine (like Belarus);
3. create disarmed Ukraine.
Since they could preserve a piece of Ukraine that wouldn't be part of Russia, wouldn't be subordinated to Russia but to NATO/EU, and NATO/EU could deploy any number and type of weapon systems. It wouldn't be a victory for Ukraine, but Russia wouldn't prevail.
And the other thing his statement and the following denial of fellow Euro politicians remind me:
>send weapons to ukraine
<noooo we wont send weapons
>send them anyway
>send artillery to ukraine
<ooooo we wont send artillery
>send them anyway
>send tanks to ukraine
<noooo we wont send tanks
>send them anyway
>send long range rockets to ukraine
<noooo we wont send rockets
>send them anyway
>send fighter jets to ukraine
<noooo we wont send fighter jets
>send them anyway
>send troops to ukraine
<noooo we wont send troops
...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/27/french-president-emmanuel-macron-ukraine-french-ground-troops

Edited part of the map of this dude: >>51698 so the strongholds can be seen better. Clément drew the fortifications in blue, and used blue to shade Ukraine held territory. So it's a bit hard to see.
It's the Avdiivka front (Tsentr Group) towards Pokrovsk. There is one chain of trenches from Stara Mykolaivka in the north through Ocheretyne and Komyshivka to Vovchenka in the south where the line can settle. They might just push in the center to about Novoselivka Persha which Russians could take. And they gonna have a bulge there.
I think a lot will depend on Krasnohorivka.

>>51723
It's a stupid term to begin with and one used by people that don't seem to know a whole lot about military tactics or organization.

I like how Matt of WillyOAM pronounces Sergey as Sir Jay. I think excellent channel as far as these war coverage videos go. No sarcasm.

Russia/Soviet Union never attacked "Europe", but "Europe" attacked Russia/Soviet Union twice already.

>>51732
The USSR invaded Finland and also attacked Europe in 1920(the Polish-Soviet war), they invaded Poland again in 1939 but that was a bit different.
The Russian empire historically has invaded Europe on numerous occasions as well.

>>51733
Yes, they invaded Finland, the Baltics, Poland, and Romania. They never attacked "Europe" as a whole.
While Napoleon "unified" Europe and attacked Russia. It was Europe's attack.
And Hitler "unified" Europe and attacked the SU. It was Europe's attack.
Now Macron and the like are talking about how Russia wants to attack Europe, so they have to attack Russia.
In fact this time they (we) have a duo of Franco-Germany which "unifies" Europe and wants to attack Russia.

Probably even the Intervention counts as "Europe" attacking Russia.
And in the Polish-Soviet war was initiated by the Poles in the first place.

I was searching for Ukrainian equipment used in the war. I deviated from the actual mark here and there, skimming various somewhat related articles and looking up stuff from there.
What an interesting find. Does she scream down airplanes from the sky?

The Russian Liberation Army or how it is called, one of the Ukrainian Russian unit is attacking into Belgorod Oblast. Fun.

>>51767
I doubt much will come out of this. I highly suspect this is for spicing up the Russian elections that takes place on March 15-17.

>>51797
Total Democracy Win
No opposition was harmed during this election

Up to this date I've seen (kinda, partially on youtube) two videos when a Bradley faces a tank, while coordinating with either artillery battery and/or a drone team. Both were Bradleys of the 47th Brigade.
Actually the first video was about a month ago, and featured two Bradleys. Well they weren't featured just their tracer munition, it focuses on the T-90.
I assume this is a way to keep Ukrainian tanks out of harm. Concentrated fire of Bradleys could be enough, and if they can add some bombardment while the tank is distracted, they surely don't need the gun of a tank.

>>51799
Inspirational for all the third world's budding democracies.

Potentially good source of tidbits is the Janes' website. Just type "Ukraine" in the search field and order it by Date, like this:
https://www.janes.com/search-results?indexCatalogue=all---production&searchQuery=ukraine&wordsMode=&orderBy=Newest
These articles are short reports but they offer interesting finds. For example the latest:
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/ukraine-conflict-netherlands-pledges-multimillion-euro-f-16-weapons-uav-package-for-kyiv
The following data can be extracted directly:
- Netherlands sends F-16s
- €150 million worth of ammo for the jets
- this purchase will be done directly from the industry - not via Ukraine first
- €200 million for ISR drone purchase - together with partner countries (so it seems this 200 Milka won't be spent by Netherlands alone)
- 18 F-16s go to Romania to used in training
- 24 F-16s go directly to Ukraine
- there is a pilot and maintenance crew training center in Romania for Ukrainian airmen
- there is a so called F-16 coalition: Belgium, Denmark, Luxemburg, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Sweden, UK, US.
I wonder what an exbert could conclude, what derivative information could he mine out of this. Such as one might know the types of ISR drones, and their price and could guesstimate how this 200 Milka will be spent. Eg. Bayraktar TB2 costs about 5 mil, so they can buy 40 pieces of it. Or such expert might now that what "the industry" expression means, what companies and factories, are they in Europe, in the US, who are their owners, who gets this infusion of funds, etc.

Something brewin' in Russia, waiting for updates

>>51806
It's called kvas.

As a note. Crocus City Hall shooting in Moscow. Claimed to be ISIS, Kremlin says 11 arrested, 4 directly involved in the attack, tried to fled to Ukraine.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/23/moscow-concert-hall-attack-what-do-we-know-so-far

In criticism of the Putin-regime we will probably see claims that the security forces of Russia are both incompetent to allow and mastermind to orchestrate the attack at the same time. So who knows.

I think that this "they were heading for Ukraine" story is silly. How would they cross the border which is most likely more watched than pornhub, especially after the Ukrainian action against Belgorod.

>>51809
Death toll at the moment: 143.
Apparently 6000 people attended the place.

Apparently during Russian election time, people - mostly babushkas - were called on phone and conned into setting the voting booths and ballots and whatnot on fire with various liquids, molotov cocktails.
The Crocus attackers used similar method to burn the building.
Was election a foreshadow of the event?

>>51810
Luka claimed they were actually heading for Belarus but wouldn't be able to enter.

>>51820
Their escape plan is quite mysterious. Well, their escape plan too. I doubt we'll ever know anything sure. Suspicions and accusations all what we are having.

Apparently Defense Politics Asia has an archive channel where he uploads war footage. Smart. I hear from tubers they get flagged if too much war footage is in their videos, gore and such. So having a channel that doesn't matter if it gets flagged sounds like a good idea.
This channel seems to be 1 month old.
https://invidious.protokolla.fi/channel/UC3OfKXwIgj2m9Wzj-VEZI8A
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3OfKXwIgj2m9Wzj-VEZI8A
Example:
https://invidious.protokolla.fi/watch?v=uP43kj4K_W4
https://youtube.com/watch?v=uP43kj4K_W4 [Embed]

Invidious is getting fugged by youtube again, can't retrieve videos. So today I'm missing my daily dose of sitreps. Well almost. DPA at last has his channel on Odysee too.

Article about Nepalese, Sri Lankan, and Indian dudes fighting in the Russian army (Ukrainian volunteers also mentioned).
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/1/why-are-south-asians-going-to-fight-in-ukraine
It seems sometimes they don't treated the the most honorably, like they don't get the wage they promised, or sent to the front instead of doing supporting jobs in the hinterland, or getting only couple days of training, etc. Individual cases are mentioned not wholesale treatment.

NATO held a jamboree in Brussels for its 75 bday, almost as old as venerable Sleepy Joe.
It was created in 1949. By the US from the countries who:
- were formerly allied to her in WWII, indebted to her and equipped by her: Canada, France, UK;
- were occupied by her, indebted to her: Iceland;
- were "liberated" by her, then occupied by her, indebted to her, and equipped by her: Belgium, Denmark, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway
- were defeated by her, occupied by her, indebted to her, equipped by her: Italy
- were Portugal - this angle would need a bit of research, but they did some favors towards the Allies in WWII, then the country did some "democratization", I assume a capital injection from the US helped out.
Anyway back to the jamboree. Main participants were the foreign minsters of the now 32 member states and the main topic was ofc Ukraine, but they talked about Africa, Middle East and the Indo-Pacific region too.
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg opened with a:
>NATO is bigger, stronger, and more united than ever
He also babbled about the usual stuff, more support to Ukraine and make Ukraine NATO member. From what I gathered the discussion of the foreign ministers were also empty phrases and gestures, and were basically there to each confirm they'll start some cooperation. Our foreign minister stated later in Hungarian media that they are crossing the two red lines set in 2022:
1. NATO isn't part of Ukraine's war
2. have to do everything to avoid direct confrontation with Russia
He also said that they made a decision that a planning and the creation of a proposition of the next plan needs to be started. So they are basically at step -1.
Beyond this he claimed that they "want to raise NATO's coordination role in training and weapon shipments". They'd create a logistical base in Poland, and the NATO personally would arrange the shipments to that base. From the base it wouldn't be NATO's job to move stuff into Ukraine. They'd train Ukrainian solders in NATO countries (they already do this, wtf). Thirdly they want decide how to do that 5 year plan with that $100 billion that is in the pipes.
Dmytro Kuleba, the Ukrainian foreign minister was there too. He also said the usual: send help. He also said it would be nice if they really do it, and in larger volume.
Perhaps this year most countries will met their 2% of budget military spending.

Surprisingly the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news.htm) measures information quite thinly.
This one is cute:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_224206.htm?selectedLocale=en
>Group of Experts
They are apparently "independent" and were eleven, did their research since October, contracted by Stoltenberg. But who are these and where can we read the report? On same page they link this:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_223916.htm
But no substantial information.
They have a library tho: https://www.natolibguides.info/natolibrary
This article is fun too:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_224390.htm?selectedLocale=en
>thank you for holding us on leash with firm hands

Btw Stoltenberg will be gone this year, so new General Secretary has to be elected.

Why Are NATO Tanks Equipped With The Wrong Tracks?
Why Is NATO Using Rubber Padded Tracks For Heavy Offroad Terrain?
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=rnvu5cgBZ2o
https://youtube.com/watch?v=rnvu5cgBZ2o [Embed]
He doesn't know, he wants to know the answer. I'm posting because it is interesting to note that they use the rubber padded tracks for asphalt.

Reading an article in Hungarian media right now.
Apparently Iran launched drones/rockets towards Israel.
Nothing sure in this particular article, don't know if drones, rockets, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, whatever they have. They say "they could launch as much as 4-500 pieces", but don't know how many they launched. They say the flight will took hours.
Tho the article ends that Iran said they launched over 300 rockets, and they link another article of theirs.
https://index.hu/kulfold/2024/04/13/iran-hezbollah-izrael-drontamadas-gaza-haboru-idf/
Eh, a video of weeb union was uploaded 9 hours ago reporting the event, so this happened about midnight in Iran.

I might follow up this. I know previously a "provocation" happened on behalf of Israel, and Iran had to make a response, but at the moment can't recall the event. I'll look it up.

Ah yeah.
Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria on April 2nd, killing General Mohammed Reza Zahedi the commander of the Quds Force and others.

After seeing what happened to Gaza, every shitskin on the planet will write a will and testament before touching a white woman

>>51890
What?

So the target was Nevatim Airbase south of the West Bank.
Over 300 missiles (cruise and ballistic) and drones were launched simultaneously.
"99%" of these were intercepted by Israel and her "allies" (from elsewhere: US and UK).
7 projectiles reached the airbase and hit.
US said doesn't want a war with Iran.

Now Israel says they'll retaliate. The retaliation.
They also say they don't know yet when and how, but maybe years later. Meanwhile they'll still bomb targets in Syria.

It should be a known fact by now that Ukraine asks Patriot batteries from the world - from anyone who has. And some countries do consider this option, EU Parliament even voted that the "EU" (EU members who has 'em) should give what they can. Does this Iranian attack make these countries reconsider? They obtained their systems for a reason, and while I'm sure most of them has in no real danger to get attacked, these weapons are part of their arsenal and their main job is to deter potential enemies from attacks.

>>51892
Apparently it was more for show than anything else. It was very well telegraphed.

The pro-Ukrainians have been really riled up by the US-British-French involvement in shooting down these drones, they say that if they do that in Israel they should do it in Ukraine too.

>>51896
>It was very well telegraphed.
Yeah, Iran told US what exactly they are doing way beforehand.
>pro-Ukrainians
From this one can know at least they aren't really banderites or nazis. If they were they wouldn't have such illusions obviously in US logic: Israel is full of Jews, Ukraine is full of only hohols.
But plenty of differences beyond that for the US to rationalize why don't they help out Ukraine in such ways.
>pro-Ukrainians have been really riled up
Sometimes I write couple of words here what I expect to happen after the war. I mentioned all the maimed and the availability of trained footsoldiers for criminal organizations. Another will be looking for scapegoats, Ukrainians, especially the fundamentalist types will want to blame someone, and they'll find plenty to blame. They'll blame Hungary ofc that follows, but they'll blame the west that they let down or even betrayed Ukraine. Some will go through huge disillusionment.
I bet Western propaganda machine will work on it a lot, but it'll be effective mostly for the Western pro-Ukrainians, so they can feel better about themselves, direct the blame towards others like political opponents in their respective countries.
Myths will also be created along the line of this betrayal, which aren't myths in the sense that they are untrue, or entirely untrue. They will be well funded. It's just they'll be told to each other how myths are told. And perhaps they'll gain fictitious details. It's like how masses of German soldiers felt after WWII that the hinterland, the civil society betrayed them. "We could have beaten them but these pansies couldn't hold themselves." And this can be channeled further like NSDAP found more defined groups to blame, commies and especially Jews.
Coming years will be very interesting. Not comfortable, but at least interesting.

Soooo. Israel retaliated the retaliation of retaliation of retaliation of retaliation...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/19/israeli-missiles-hit-site-in-iran-explosions-heard-in-isfahan-report
I bet this is just them finding a way to finally bomb Iran's drone factories as they wanted back in 2023 October: >>51146 >>51147 >>51148

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/24/russia-arrests-deputy-defence-minister-suspected-of-corruption
Lel, did he not share enough with those above him in the feudal hierarchy, his seniors?
>Timur
Based name tho.